Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Tomas Barrios Vera vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Barrios Vera

Rank: #112
35%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
65%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Barrios Vera

  • Current #112 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #111 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #131 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #118 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #138 2025-02-10

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Tomas Barrios Vera

Form Index: 43.7
ELO Rating: 526.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 123.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.2
Clay: 4.0
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 64.5
Return Rating: 77.2

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 73.0
ELO Rating: 1641.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Tomas Barrios Vera
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (1-1) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Hassan (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Toronto 116 min

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (1-2) hard Auckland 155 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Barrios Vera
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Buenos Aires is on clay at an ATP 250 event and pits Tomas Barrios Vera against Luciano Darderi. The model projects Luciano Darderi to win (65.33% probability) while Barrios Vera is given a 34.67% chance; the match is expected to contain about 23.96 total games.

Match Analysis

Darderi arrives with a clear ranking and form advantage (rank 23, form index 72.96) versus Barrios Vera (rank 112, form index 43.66). Elo ratings reflect that gap strongly (Darderi 1641.07 vs Barrios Vera 526.53). Fatigue is also a factor: Barrios Vera has accumulated 123 minutes on court in this event, while Darderi shows 0 minutes of tournament fatigue. On clay both players show modest surface strength indices, but Darderi’s 12.90 is higher than Barrios Vera’s 4.04. Serve and return profiles further separate them. Darderi’s mean serve index (97.19) is substantially above Barrios Vera’s (64.48), and his mean return index (87.88) also exceeds Barrios Vera’s (77.17); both differences are greater than five points and will shape the match dynamics. Over the last three matches Barrios Vera has two wins and one loss, including a recent clay victory in Buenos Aires and two lengthy hard-court matches earlier in the season. Darderi recorded two notable hard-court wins followed by a straight-sets loss to a top opponent; his recent results show stronger overall momentum.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Barrios Vera - Luciano Darderi) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Tomas Barrios Vera wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is 13.22 total aces, while the predicted double faults sit at 4.4. On clay, slower court speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace totals, so the predicted aces reflect that surface effect. Given Darderi’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, though clay will blunt the outright ace frequency; expected double faults are moderate and may rise if long rallies increase fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking, Elo, form and markedly stronger serve/return indexes give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how Barrios Vera’s returning efficiency handles Darderi’s powerful serve on a clay court where rallies and stamina will matter.

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