Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Marton Fucsovics vs Dino Prizmic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #57
28%
VS

Dino Prizmic

Rank: #79
72%
Expected Total Games: 26.3
Predicted Winner: Dino Prizmic

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Ranking Trends

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current #57 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #134 2025-05-05

Dino Prizmic

  • Current #79 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #121 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #121 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #129 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #334 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 31.8
ELO Rating: 1592.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.8
Clay: 11.1
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 93.3

Dino Prizmic

Form Index: 71.3
ELO Rating: 1732.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1733.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 153.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 25.7
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Marton Fucsovics
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Dino Prizmic
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Federico Bondioli (2-0) clay Rome 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Madrid 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-1) clay Madrid 182 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) clay Madrid 99 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marton Fucsovics
vs
0
Dino Prizmic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Rome, Italy, the masters_1000 event opens with a Round of 128 clay match between Marton Fucsovics and Dino Prizmic. The model favors Dino Prizmic to advance (71.81% vs 28.19% for Fucsovics) with a projected 26.27 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fucsovics arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 57) but carries a lower form index (31.76) and an Elo of 1593. He is fresh in this event (0 minutes on court) and brings an excellent return profile (mean return index 93.26). Prizmic, ranked 79, posts a stronger form index (71.27) and a notably higher Elo at 1734; he has 153 minutes of match play in Rome already. Surface strength favors Prizmic modestly (25.68 vs 11.15 for Fucsovics). The difference in mean serve index is small (95.36 vs 94.46), but Fucsovics holds a meaningful edge in return ability — the mean return index gap exceeds five points. Recent results underline the contrast: Fucsovics has struggled over his last three matches, exiting in Madrid (1–2 to Pablo Carreño Busta) and losing earlier in Monte Carlo and Miami in straight sets. Prizmic arrives with momentum in Rome, having won two recent matches on clay in straight sets (73 and 80 minutes), and only a three-set loss to Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Madrid before that. Those two quick wins in-country explain his higher form index and the model’s confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.3 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marton Fucsovics - Dino Prizmic) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Marton Fucsovics wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match-level aces prediction sits at 6.31 and the predicted double faults at 4.73. On clay, the expected aces are suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, while the expected double faults can rise as rallies and fatigue accumulate. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces remain moderate; Fucsovics’ superior return profile should also limit easy service winners.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marton Fucsovics's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Prizmic’s combination of current form, higher Elo and match wins in Rome gives him the edge in this matchup. Watch how Fucsovics’ return game and freshness counteracts Prizmic’s momentum — break-point conversion and early-set rhythm will be the key determinants.

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