Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
48%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #27
52%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1370.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.2

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 53.0
ELO Rating: 1472.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 12.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match at Roland Garros will see Matteo Arnaldi take on Felix Auger-Aliassime on the clay courts of France. With a slight edge in probabilities, Auger-Aliassime is predicted to win with a 51.68% chance, while Arnaldi stands at 48.32%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is set at 37.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 37, has a form index of 46.43 and an Elo rating of 1370.90. His surface strength index on clay is 12.43, which indicates some capability on this surface. Arnaldi's mean serve index is relatively high at 97.16, while his mean return index is 88.21. In comparison, Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a higher rank at 27 and a better form index of 53.01, alongside an Elo rating of 1472.87. His surface strength index stands at 13.37, showcasing his proficiency on clay. The difference in their mean serve indices is minimal at approximately 0.76 points, but Auger-Aliassime's mean return index is lower than Arnaldi's by 2.47 points, suggesting competitive serving dynamics. In their recent performances, Arnaldi has had mixed results, winning two out of his last three matches, although he suffered a defeat against Novak Djokovic. On the other hand, Auger-Aliassime also faced a setback against Andrey Rublev, but he managed to secure a victory against Alexandre Muller in a closely contested match. Overall, Arnaldi's recent form is slightly less favorable than Auger-Aliassime's, who has shown resilience despite his last loss.

Final Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored to win this match due to his higher rank, better recent form, and slightly superior overall statistics. A critical factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of both players' serve and return games, as any significant advantage in these areas could dictate the match's outcome.

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