Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Matteo Arnaldi vs Novak Djokovic Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
32%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #6
68%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #37 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #37 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #30 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #36 2024-05-20

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #6 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #7 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #2 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2024-05-20

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 51.3
ELO Rating: 1370.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 256.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 43.7
ELO Rating: 3381.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2567.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 77.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.3
Clay: 30.1
Grass: 33.5
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Novak Djokovic
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the quarterfinals of the Geneva tournament unfold on the clay surface, Matteo Arnaldi takes on the formidable Novak Djokovic. With both players striving for a place in the semifinals, Djokovic is predicted to emerge victorious with a probability of 68.22%, while Arnaldi's chances stand at 31.78%. The anticipated total number of games played in this matchup is projected to be 22.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 37, Matteo Arnaldi has demonstrated promise with a form index of 51.26 and an Elo rating of 1370.90. Despite his recent performances, where he has secured two wins in Geneva, his cumulative fatigue stands at 256 minutes. His surface strength index of 12.43 reflects a developing prowess on clay, but his mean serve index of 97.13 indicates he may struggle against Djokovic's experience. In contrast, Novak Djokovic, ranked 6, boasts a stronger form index of 43.71 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 3381.94. His cumulative fatigue is notably lower at 77 minutes, suggesting he has managed his energy effectively in the tournament. Djokovic's surface strength index of 30.10 showcases his mastery of clay courts, and while his mean serve index of 96.40 is slightly lower than Arnaldi's, his mean return index of 88.44 surpasses Arnaldi's by over 5 points, which could play a pivotal role in this encounter.

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic's extensive experience and superior Elo rating provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup against Matteo Arnaldi. The key factor to watch will be Djokovic's return game, as his ability to capitalize on Arnaldi's serve could dictate the flow of the match and ultimately secure his victory.

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