Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #96
38%
VS

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #64
62%
Expected Total Games: 38.7
Predicted Winner: Raphael Collignon

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #96 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #88 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #62 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #64 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #36 2025-05-26

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #64 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #71 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #107 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 58.0
ELO Rating: 1649.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 25.6
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 92.3

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 64.7
ELO Rating: 1698.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.4
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (1-2) clay Rome 121 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-1) clay Rome 176 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) clay Rome 153 min

Raphael Collignon
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Geneva 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) clay Geneva 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Miami 140 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Raphael Collignon
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — round of 32 on clay at a grand slam sees Matteo Arnaldi face Raphael Collignon in what should be a tactically intense encounter. The model favors Collignon to advance (61.58%) over Arnaldi (38.42%), with an expected total of about 38.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Collignon arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 64) with a stronger form index (64.66 vs 58.00) and a superior Elo (1698.40 v 1649.29). Both men show identical cumulative fatigue from the tournament (348 minutes), so recent court time is not a differentiator. Arnaldi’s surface strength index (25.63) is higher than Collignon’s (18.38), suggesting Arnaldi may feel a bit more at ease on clay even if overall metrics tilt toward his opponent. Serve and return profiles are closely matched: Arnaldi’s mean serve index (95.91) and Collignon’s (94.98) are within a point of each other, and neither side posts a gap greater than five points on return ability. Recent form underscores the matchup contrast — Arnaldi has knockout wins at Roland Garros over tough opponents, taking back-to-back 3-1 victories before a loss in Rome, while Collignon has been clinical in Paris with consecutive 3-0 wins after an earlier defeat in Geneva. Those straight-set wins give Collignon momentum and a slight edge in tournament rhythm.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.7 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Arnaldi - Raphael Collignon) -1.2 Most likely spread: -2 (Raphael Collignon wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the meeting sits at roughly 12.49 total, and the predicted aces distribution will be restrained by the slow clay surface. The double faults prediction is 8.58 for the match; expected double faults may rise as rallies lengthen and fatigue accumulates late in sets. Neither player’s serve index is significantly higher, so the modest ace count is likely a surface-driven outcome.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.5 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.6 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Arnaldi's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Collignon’s higher ranking, Elo and recent clean wins in Paris give him the narrow edge projected here. Watch Collignon’s ability to convert break chances early — momentum in those frames will likely decide this tie.

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