Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei Sakamoto Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #73
61%
VS

Rei Sakamoto

Rank: #190
39%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #73 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #39 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #36 (2024-09-30)

Rei Sakamoto

  • Current Rank: #190 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #291 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #279 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #413 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #779 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 31.4
ELO Rating: 1096.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.5

Rei Sakamoto

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 309.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.9
Clay: 1.2
Grass: 1.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Tokio 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (1-1) hard Tokio 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-2) hard Hangzhou 171 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 177 min

Rei Sakamoto
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Shanghai 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-0) hard Shanghai 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) hard Tokio 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Tokio 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-2) hard Chengdu 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Rei Sakamoto
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto in the Round of 128 at the Shanghai Masters 1000 presents an intriguing clash on hard court. Arnaldi is predicted to win with a probability of 61.24%, while Sakamoto has a probability of 38.76%. The expected total number of games played in this match is 22.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 73, possesses a form index of 31.39 and an Elo rating of 1096.55. His fatigue level stands at 0 minutes, indicating he is fresh for this match. Arnaldi’s surface strength index is notably higher at 10.48, and he boasts a mean serve index of 96.86, compared to Sakamoto's 95.94. The difference in mean serve index is marginal, but his mean return index of 87.46 is slightly superior to Sakamoto's 87.32, showcasing his better performance in return games. Rei Sakamoto, ranked 190, has a higher form index of 52.67 but a significantly lower Elo rating of 309.24, indicating a disparity in overall competitive experience. He has accumulated 148 minutes of fatigue from previous matches, which could impact his performance. In his last three matches, Sakamoto has shown resilience, winning two matches, including a recent victory against Mackenzie McDonald, but he also faced a loss against Aleksandar Vukic prior to that. This inconsistency may affect his confidence heading into the match against Arnaldi.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's fresh condition and superior performance metrics give him a distinct advantage in this encounter. The key factor to watch will be Arnaldi's ability to leverage his strong return game, particularly against Sakamoto's serve, as this could dictate the flow of the match and ultimately lead to his predicted victory.