Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tristan Schoolkate vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Tristan Schoolkate

Rank: #104
34%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #44
66%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Tristan Schoolkate

  • Current Rank: #104 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #122 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #147 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #177 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #197 (2024-07-29)

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #44 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #44 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #38 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Tristan Schoolkate

Form Index: 54.2
ELO Rating: 560.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.3

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 45.2
ELO Rating: 1222.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1626.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Tristan Schoolkate
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-0) hard Toronto 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Govind Nanda (2-0) hard Toronto 60 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-1) hard Los Cabos 121 min

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Washington 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Washington 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-1) hard Washington 162 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) grass Stuttgart 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tristan Schoolkate
vs
0
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Tristan Schoolkate and Matteo Arnaldi takes place in the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Canada, on hard court. Arnaldi is favored to win with a probability of 65.75%, while Schoolkate has a 34.25% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 23.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 44, comes into this match with an Elo rating of 1222.92 and a fatigue level of 0 minutes, indicating he is well-rested. His surface strength index stands at 12.10, showcasing a solid performance on hard courts. In contrast, Tristan Schoolkate, ranked 104, has a lower Elo rating of 560.73 and a cumulative fatigue of 152 minutes from previous matches. Schoolkate's surface strength index is also notably lower at 5.13, which may impact his performance. The difference in their mean serve index is marginal, with Schoolkate at 97.10 and Arnaldi at 95.49, while Arnaldi holds a slight advantage in mean return index at 87.96 compared to Schoolkate's 86.27. In their recent performances, Schoolkate has had a mixed bag, winning his last two matches against Joao Fonseca and Govind Nanda, both in straight sets. However, he did suffer a loss to Denis Shapovalov in Los Cabos, indicating some inconsistency. On the other hand, Arnaldi recently lost to Taylor Fritz but had impressive victories against Lorenzo Sonego and Daniel Altmaier prior to that. This fluctuation in form for Arnaldi could be a key factor, but his overall better ranking and lesser fatigue may give him the edge he needs.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and lack of fatigue position him as the stronger contender in this matchup against Tristan Schoolkate. Additionally, his recent performances, despite the last match setback, show that he can compete at a high level. A key factor to observe during the match will be how effectively Arnaldi can handle Schoolkate's serve, as both players possess strong serving abilities.