Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Fils is driven chiefly by overall strength and surface fit. Overall strength favors Fils: he is ranked 24 with an Elo of 1944.03 compared with Berrettini’s rank 51 and Elo 1746.27, a gap that explains the largest single swing toward Fils. Surface fit also nudges the prediction toward Fils—his surface strength index on grass is 17.61 versus Berrettini’s 12.02, indicating a clearer grass aptitude in the data. Recent form and recent record by level further support Fils; his straight-sets win in the Wimbledon opener (3-0 vs Collignon) contrasts with Berrettini’s mixed run across clay and grass, including a Roland Garros loss to Arnaldi. Fatigue and workload is one of the few factors moving toward Berrettini. Both players show identical cumulative minutes listed (174.0), but the model attributes 3.4 percentage points to Berrettini on workload—an acknowledgement in the data that his recent match patterns may be less draining relative to opponent match intensity. Serve and return profiles are close: Berrettini’s mean serve index is 97.67 vs Fils 96.32 (difference <5), and return indices are 91.01 vs 87.37 (difference <5), so neither margin is large enough to be decisive. Over the past three matches Berrettini’s sequence is W–L–W (including a solid Wimbledon win), while Fils is W–L–L but arrives with a convincing 3-0 victory on grass.