Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Mattia Bellucci vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #66
52%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #91
48%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Mattia Bellucci

Why the Model Favors Mattia Bellucci

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +2.3 Mattia Bellucci
Overall record & opposition quality +1.6 Lorenzo Sonego
Fatigue & recent workload +1.2 Mattia Bellucci
Recent form +1.0 Mattia Bellucci

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Mattia Bellucci. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #66 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #80 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #74 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-11-03

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #91 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #88 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #66 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #60 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #42 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 60.1
ELO Rating: 1679.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 180.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.4
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 86.5

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 1620.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 318.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 24.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bellucci is a slight favourite, at 52% to Sonego’s 48%. The forecast points to a long contest, with 25.7 total games expected.

Match Analysis

Bellucci’s recent Paris form and lighter workload give him a small but useful advantage. He has won both matches here in straight sets, including against Pablo Carreno Busta, and has spent 180 minutes on court in the tournament compared with Sonego’s 318. The age comparison also leans toward Bellucci, while Sonego’s record against stronger opposition is a counterweight. Sonego has beaten Jaume Munar and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in Paris, though both matches went to three sets.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mattia Bellucci - Lorenzo Sonego) +0.9 Most likely spread: +1 (Mattia Bellucci wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bellucci is projected to hit 7.9 aces and Sonego 7.0, with their serve strengths closely matched on hard court. Bellucci is forecast for 2.5 double faults and Sonego 1.9, a small difference that fits the similarly rated serve profiles.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Mattia Bellucci 7.9 + Lorenzo Sonego 7.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Mattia Bellucci 2.5 + Lorenzo Sonego 1.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 7.9 aces

Lorenzo Sonego

Expected 7.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 2.5 double faults

Lorenzo Sonego

Expected 1.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mattia Bellucci's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sonego’s wins over Munar and Vallejo show the quality that could turn this close forecast his way. Bellucci’s fresher legs and recent straight-set results give him the narrow advantage.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel