Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #56
64%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #80
36%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Roman Andres Burruchaga

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Ranking Trends

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #56 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #118 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #105 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #145 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #135 2025-05-05

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #80 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #75 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #74 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #68 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 1609.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 96.0

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 35.6
ELO Rating: 1531.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1521.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.5
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Marrakech 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Reda Bennani (2-1) clay Marrakech 148 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Miami 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-1) hard Miami 162 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
0
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, Round of 128 pits Argentine Roman Andres Burruchaga against Italy’s Mattia Bellucci. The model favors Burruchaga, projecting a 64.34% chance of victory to Bellucci’s 35.66%, with an expected total of about 24.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Burruchaga arrives with the higher ranking (56 vs 80) and the superior Elo (1609.6 to 1531.9), and shows a stronger surface profile — his surface strength index (18.43) is noticeably higher than Bellucci’s 7.50. Both players report zero tournament fatigue. Their mean serve indices are very close (Burruchaga 94.58, Bellucci 95.51), so serve power alone should not be decisive, but Burruchaga’s mean return index (96.05) is markedly better than Bellucci’s (86.09), a gap likely to tip tight service games toward the Argentine. Recent form underlines that edge: Burruchaga has three clay matches in Houston with two straight-set wins followed by a competitive three-set loss to Tommy Paul (sets: W-W-L; match lengths 61, 94, 160 minutes). Bellucci’s last three clay outings show less consistency — a long win against Reda Bennani (148 minutes) but back-to-back losses in Marrakech and Madrid (78 and 77 minutes). Taken together, Burruchaga’s recent results and stronger return numbers suggest he can pressure Bellucci’s service games more often.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Mattia Bellucci) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Roman Andres Burruchaga wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.79 for the match while the predicted double faults total 4.25. On clay, the expected aces are suppressed by the slow surface and high bounce, so the predicted aces reflect that; conversely, expected double faults can rise as rallies and fatigue accumulate. With serve ratings nearly identical, neither player should drive a large deviation from the predicted aces count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

25.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Roman Andres Burruchaga's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Burruchaga’s higher Elo, better return index and steadier recent clay form give him the edge in Rome. Watch his return games early — breaking Bellucci soon could be the decisive factor.

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