Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #66
52%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #63
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Why the Model Favors Miomir Kecmanovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +6.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Serve & return game +3.1 Fabian Marozsan
Overall record & opposition quality +2.3 Fabian Marozsan
Head-to-head +2.1 Miomir Kecmanovic
Recent record by level +1.3 Miomir Kecmanovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Miomir Kecmanovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 40.4
ELO Rating: 1604.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.3
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.8

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 32.7
ELO Rating: 1616.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.4
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic

Fabian Marozsan

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
2
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 2

Key Prediction Insights

At Winston-Salem in North Carolina, round of 32 on hard courts in an atp_250 event, Miomir Kecmanovic is narrowly favored over Fabian Marozsan. The model gives Kecmanovic a 51.84 percent chance to win versus 48.16 percent for Marozsan. The projected match length is short to moderate at about 24.14 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Kecmanovic is driven most by recent form and a small head-to-head advantage. Kecmanovic posts a higher form index (40.39) than Marozsan (32.74), and his recent straight sets win in Winston-Salem contributes to that momentum. The head-to-head factor adds a smaller but meaningful tilt toward Kecmanovic. Conversely, Marozsan gains ground from serve and return metrics and from slightly stronger overall record and opposition quality, reflected in his higher Elo at 1616.66 versus Kecmanovic’s 1604.42. Looking at the raw player profiles, Kecmanovic sits 66 in the rankings with a strong mean serve index of 96.62 and an excellent mean return index of 89.85. He carries 80 minutes of court time in this tournament, which is a note for stamina management. Marozsan is ranked 63, with a mean serve index of 96.11 and a mean return index of 85.78, and he arrives with no tournament fatigue. Surface strength indices are comparable and low for both players, so neither has a clear hard court superiority. Over their last three matches, Kecmanovic is 2-1 with a recent 2-0 win at Winston-Salem and a 120 minute loss in Cincinnati. Marozsan is 1-2 with two tight losses in Cincinnati and Toronto and one comfortable win at Toronto earlier.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Fabian Marozsan) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. Positive values indicate Miomir Kecmanovic winning more games, negative values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match totals 11.81, with predicted aces split about 5.5 for Kecmanovic and 6.47 for Marozsan. The double faults prediction is 4.6 overall, split roughly 2.26 for Kecmanovic and 2.34 for Marozsan. On medium paced hard courts, these predicted aces are reasonable since the surface rewards both servers and returners. Neither player has a markedly higher serve rating, so the per player predicted aces remain close at 5.5 and 6.47.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.8 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 5.5 + Fabian Marozsan 6.5
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 2.3 + Fabian Marozsan 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 5.5 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Miomir Kecmanovic serves in this match.
Fabian Marozsan

Expected 6.5 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Fabian Marozsan serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 2.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Miomir Kecmanovic serves in this match.
Fabian Marozsan

Expected 2.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Fabian Marozsan serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s recent form is the top model key factor giving him a slight edge in a tight matchup. Watch the early service games and fatigue management, as breaks and short exchanges will likely decide a match expected to be compact in games.

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