Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 32

Nicolas Jarry vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

Nicolas Jarry

Rank: #143
35%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #54
65%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Ranking Trends

Nicolas Jarry

  • Current #143 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #58 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #35 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #29 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #20 2024-07-01

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #54 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #145 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #159 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #216 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Nicolas Jarry

Form Index: 88.5
ELO Rating: 1229.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 84.1

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 71.4
ELO Rating: 1227.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1657.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Nicolas Jarry
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Klein (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jozef Kovalik (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Pavel Kotov (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Joao Fonseca
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) grass Eastbourne 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-1) grass Eastbourne 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) grass Halle 164 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolas Jarry
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at Wimbledon 2025, Joao Fonseca is set to face Nicolas Jarry on the grass courts of Great Britain. The predicted winner is Joao Fonseca, with a probability of 64.99% to Jarry's 35.01%. The anticipated total number of games played is around 39.

Match Analysis

Nicolas Jarry currently holds a rank of 143, while Joao Fonseca is positioned at 54, reflecting a significant disparity in their standings. Jarry has a form index of 88.50, suggesting he is in solid form, particularly after winning his last three matches. In contrast, Fonseca's form index is lower at 71.36, indicating he has struggled slightly more recently. Despite this, both players have similar Elo ratings, with Jarry at 1229.45 and Fonseca closely trailing at 1227.00. Fatigue may play a role in this matchup, with Jarry carrying a cumulative fatigue of 870 minutes compared to Fonseca's 348 minutes, which is a considerable difference. On grass, Jarry has a surface strength index of 11.06, while Fonseca's is lower at 5.19. Jarry's mean serve index is also superior at 97.32, which is more than 5 points higher than Fonseca's 94.46. However, when it comes to mean return index, Fonseca has the edge at 86.31 compared to Jarry's 84.12, creating an interesting dynamic in their playing styles.

Final Prediction

Joao Fonseca's higher rank and fresher condition due to lower fatigue levels give him a definitive advantage heading into their encounter. An essential factor to monitor will be how Jarry's strong serving capabilities affect Fonseca's ability to return, which could ultimately influence the match's outcome.

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