Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #4
72%
Expected Total Games: 39.8
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

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Player Metrics

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 29.0
ELO Rating: 1530.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 11.8
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 86.0

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 2059.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1998.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.1
Clay: 43.3
Grass: 50.6
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Novak Djokovic

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland‑Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay at the 2026 Grand Slam, Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The model gives Djokovic a 72.36% chance to win versus 27.64% for Mpetshi Perricard, with an expected total of about 39.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (rank 80) arrives with a form index of 29.01, an Elo of 1530.87 and zero cumulative tournament fatigue. His surface strength index on clay is modest at 11.82, but his mean serve index is very high at 97.91 and his mean return index sits at 85.96. Novak Djokovic (rank 4) has a higher form index of 38.34 and a substantially stronger Elo rating of 2059.34; his reported fatigue is also zero. Djokovic’s surface strength index is 43.34 on clay, and his mean serve and return indices are 93.17 and 85.17 respectively, indicating solid all‑court balance and notably better clay credentials than his opponent. Looking at recent matches, Perricard has one win and two defeats in his last three: a win against Jacob Fearnley in Rome (three sets) followed by straight‑sets losses to Lorenzo Musetti (Rome) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (Geneva), both on clay. Djokovic’s last three show one victory and two defeats: a win over Aleksandar Kovacevic in Indian Wells, then losses to Jack Draper (hard) and Dino Prizmic (clay), with a mix of long matches suggesting physical demand. Those results point to Djokovic’s higher baseline level and clay comfort versus Perricard’s potent serve but limited clay profile.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.8 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Novak Djokovic) -2.9 Most likely spread: -3 (Novak Djokovic wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. Positive values indicate Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard winning more games, negative values indicate Novak Djokovic winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 21.42 total and the predicted double faults are 7.55. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce tend to reduce serve winners, so the predicted aces reflect that moderation, while the expected double faults acknowledge longer rallies and potential fatigue. Giovanni’s mean serve index (97.91) is likely to boost the predicted aces, but clay’s characteristics and Djokovic’s strong return game temper that upside.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.4 Most likely: 21 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.5 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard versus Novak Djokovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

60.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (43.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Djokovic’s large Elo gap and superior clay surface index give him the edge in this opener, reflected in the 72% win probability. The key factor to watch is whether Perricard’s big serve can produce enough free points to offset Djokovic’s ability to control rallies and convert break opportunities on clay.

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