Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #87
41%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #7
59%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Why the Model Favors Novak Djokovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +9.8 Novak Djokovic
Surface fit +8.4 Novak Djokovic
Age +5.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serve & return game +4.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent record by level +3.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Novak Djokovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #87 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-06-30

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #7 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #4 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #4 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 47.8
ELO Rating: 1668.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 22.4
Grass: 14.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.1

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 49.3
ELO Rating: 2009.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1985.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.4
Clay: 41.0
Grass: 50.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) grass Mallorca 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) clay Geneva 109 min

Novak Djokovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 64 clash at Wimbledon in Great Britain pits Stefanos Tsitsipas against Novak Djokovic on grass at a Grand Slam. The model favors Novak Djokovic to win (59.22%) over Stefanos Tsitsipas (40.78%), with a predicted total of about 37.25 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Djokovic comes mainly from overall strength and superior surface fit. Djokovic’s Elo (2009.49) and world rank (7) substantially outpace Tsitsipas’s Elo (1668.02) and rank (87), driving a 9.8-point swing toward Djokovic. Surface fit is also decisive: Djokovic’s surface strength index (50.91) dwarfs Tsitsipas’s (14.26), contributing another 8.4 points in Djokovic’s favor — a meaningful advantage on fast, low-bouncing grass at Wimbledon. Both players enter tied on tournament court time (174 minutes), so fatigue is neutral here. Still, several factors push the needle toward Tsitsipas. Age contributes 5.3 percentage points in his favor per the model, and competence on serve & return adds 4.4 points to his tally: Tsitsipas posts a mean serve index of 96.77 and a mean return index of 92.06, marginally above Djokovic’s 96.70 serve and 89.11 return indices. Recent results also tilt slightly toward Tsitsipas (+3.4 points) — he has one straight-sets win at Wimbledon after a couple of losses, while Djokovic’s recent form shows two wins and a three-set defeat at Roland Garros.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Novak Djokovic) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Novak Djokovic wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 20.77 for the match, and the expected double faults total is 7.02. On grass — the fastest surface — the predicted aces are in line with quicker conditions that reward flat, powerful serving; the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect that tendency. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating (serve indices are nearly identical), so the predicted aces figure likely represents strong serving from both men rather than a one-sided serving dominance.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.8 Most likely: 20 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.0 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Djokovic’s overall strength — led by a much higher Elo and markedly better grass surface index — is the primary reason he’s the projected winner. Keep an eye on how Tsitsipas’s return game and service consistency hold up early; if his return index translates into break opportunities, it will be the key variable that can swing the match.

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