Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #5
74%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #204
26%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Player Metrics

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 70.8
ELO Rating: 3511.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2548.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 547.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.3
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 33.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 62.7
ELO Rating: 827.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 886.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Novak Djokovic

  • Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Shanghai 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Shanghai 161 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) hard Shanghai 162 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Shanghai 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Valentin Vacherot

  • Last Match: vs Holger Rune (2-1) hard Shanghai 179 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) hard Shanghai 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-0) hard Shanghai 53 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (2-1) hard Shanghai 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (2-0) hard Shanghai 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Novak Djokovic
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai, Novak Djokovic is set to face Valentin Vacherot on hard courts in China. Djokovic is heavily favored to win, with a probability of 74.19%, while Vacherot stands at 25.81%. The predicted total number of games played in this matchup is estimated to be 22.0.

Match Analysis

Novak Djokovic, currently ranked 5th, boasts a strong form index of 70.81 and an impressive Elo rating of 3511.89. He is experiencing a fatigue level of 547 minutes from previous matches, which is relatively low for this stage of the tournament. Djokovic's surface strength index of 31.25 indicates his proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.42 and a mean return index of 87.16. The substantial difference in the mean serve index of over 5 points (Djokovic's 96.42 vs. Vacherot's 95.60) further emphasizes Djokovic's serving advantage. In contrast, Valentin Vacherot, ranked 204th, has a form index of 62.73 and an Elo rating of 827.57. His cumulative fatigue level is significantly higher at 886 minutes, which may affect his performance. Vacherot's surface strength index is considerably lower at 6.57, indicating he is less effective on hard courts compared to Djokovic. His recent performances have shown promise, winning his last three matches, but he has faced lower-ranked opponents. In his last match against Holger Rune, Vacherot won in a closely contested match lasting 179 minutes, while Djokovic's last match against Zizou Bergs was won decisively in just 110 minutes.

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic's considerable experience, combined with his superior statistics in serving and returning, gives him a distinct edge going into this semifinal. One key factor to observe will be Djokovic's ability to capitalize on Vacherot's fatigue and lower surface strength, which could dictate the flow of the match.