Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Yunchaokete Bu vs Novak Djokovic Prediction

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #104
24%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #11
76%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Why the Model Favors Novak Djokovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.2 Novak Djokovic
Overall strength +9.1 Novak Djokovic
Surface fit +8.6 Novak Djokovic
Age +3.9 Yunchaokete Bu
Overall record & opposition quality +2.6 Novak Djokovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Novak Djokovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current #104 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #107 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #158 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #123 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #121 2025-09-29

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #11 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #4 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #4 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1647.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1643.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 139.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.1
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.9

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 30.7
ELO Rating: 1957.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1974.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 44.0
Clay: 41.0
Grass: 54.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Yunchaokete Bu
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Novak Djokovic
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yunchaokete Bu
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Djokovic is the clear favorite, with the forecast giving him a 76% chance of winning against Bu’s 24%. The match is projected to last 24.6 games in Beijing’s Round of 16.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is on hard courts: Djokovic has been the stronger player on the surface, and his rank of 11 compared with Bu’s 104 reflects the broader strength gap. Djokovic’s stronger return could make it difficult for Bu to protect his service games consistently. Both arrive off Beijing wins, with Djokovic beating Nuno Borges in straight sets and Bu overcoming Juan Manuel Cerundolo in three. Bu has the age advantage, but the forecast still favors Djokovic based on his stronger results at this level and overall strength.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yunchaokete Bu - Novak Djokovic) -3.1 Most likely spread: -4 (Novak Djokovic wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bu is projected to hit 7.5 aces and Djokovic 8.5, with their serve levels close enough to point to similar totals. The forecast has Bu at 2.2 double faults and Djokovic at 2.3, with no large difference expected in their serving consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 7.5 + Novak Djokovic 8.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 2.2 + Novak Djokovic 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 7.5 aces

Novak Djokovic

Expected 8.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 2.2 double faults

Novak Djokovic

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yunchaokete Bu's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (51.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bu’s most credible route to an upset is to make his serve count and earn enough free points to limit Djokovic’s return pressure. If that does not happen, Djokovic’s hard-court advantage should be difficult to overcome.

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