Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #25
51%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #50
49%
Expected Total Games: 41.2
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #25 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #33 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #60 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #53 2025-05-26

Nuno Borges

  • Current #50 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #48 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 35.7
ELO Rating: 1734.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1805.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.9
Clay: 26.8
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 92.4

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 33.4
ELO Rating: 1591.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 18.9
Grass: 17.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Nuno Borges
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Rome 61 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Madrid 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) clay Barcelona 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) clay Barcelona 121 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
2
Nuno Borges
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the first-round clay clash between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Nuno Borges projects as a tightly poised Grand Slam opener. The model gives Etcheverry the narrow edge, 51.27% to Borges’s 48.73%, with a predicted total of about 41.24 games — indicative of a competitive encounter likely to feature multiple service breaks.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives as the higher-ranked player (25) with a superior Elo (1734.19) and a slightly stronger form index (35.74 vs 33.36). His surface strength index (26.84) also outpaces Borges’s (18.90), though both figures are modest for clay specialists. Fatigue is not an issue for either man coming into the match (0 minutes on court in this event). Serve numbers are similar—mean serve indices of 96.46 for Etcheverry and 95.18 for Borges—so neither should dominate purely from service power. However, Etcheverry’s mean return index (92.40) is meaningfully higher than Borges’s (85.79), a gap greater than five points and a likely decisive factor in the margin. Recent form is mixed for both. Etcheverry has one win in his last three matches (a straight-sets win over Terence Atmane in Hamburg) but suffered losses to Tommy Paul and Mattia Bellucci on clay, including a long 213-minute match in Hamburg. Borges likewise has one win in three, beating Jesper de Jong in Rome but losing to Rafael Jodar and Mariano Navone; his matches have tended to be shorter, suggesting less recent long-match exposure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.2 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Nuno Borges) +0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at a modest 15.78 total, while the double faults prediction is 7.55. On clay, predicted aces are suppressed by the slow, high-bouncing surface, and expected double faults can creep up as rallies lengthen. With both players’ serve ratings close, neither should produce a dramatically higher ace count, but Etcheverry’s slight edge on return could pressure Borges into more second-serve errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.5 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Martin Etcheverry's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (20.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s edge comes down to a stronger return profile and higher overall ratings, which should translate into more opportunities to break on clay. The key factor to watch is how effectively Etcheverry converts return pressure into breaks; if he does, the tight prediction will tilt in his favour.

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