Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Quentin Halys vs Mees Rottgering: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #79
70%
VS

Mees Rottgering

Rank: #1000
30%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

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Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current #79 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #90 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #52 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #74 2025-02-10

Mees Rottgering

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #838 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 797.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1593.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 86.8
Return Rating: 34.6

Mees Rottgering

Form Index: 49.1
ELO Rating: 89.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 318.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.1
Clay: 0.2
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Adelaide 89 min

Mees Rottgering
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (2-1) hard Rotterdam 189 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Kyrian Jacquet (1-1) hard Rotterdam 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Evans (1-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 160 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jelle Sels (2-0) grass S Hertogenbosch 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mattia Bellucci (0-2) hard Rotterdam 102 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Mees Rottgering
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 tie in Rotterdam, Netherlands is on indoor hard courts at a 500-level event. Quentin Halys is the clear pick here: predicted winner Quentin Halys 69.54%, Mees Rottgering 30.46%, with an expected total of about 23.23 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 79) with a substantially higher Elo (797.48) compared with Rottgering (Elo 89.56, rank 1000). His form index (40.06) is lower than Rottgering’s (49.11), but Halys shows no tournament fatigue (0 minutes) while Rottgering carries 318 minutes of court time into this match. Both players register low surface-strength indices on hard (Halys 5.50, Rottgering 1.07), so recent surface comfort appears limited for each. Serve/return profiles diverge sharply: Rottgering posts a higher mean serve index (97.43) versus Halys (86.83) — a meaningful gap greater than 5 points — while his mean return index (90.46) far outstrips Halys’s return (34.62), another large difference. Over the last three matches Halys has one win (Tabilo) and losses to Machac and Medvedev, including a long four-set match at the Australian Open. Rottgering has momentum in this event with back-to-back Rotterdam wins (including a 189-minute match vs Carballes Baena and 129 minutes vs Jacquet), but that run explains his accumulated fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Mees Rottgering) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Quentin Halys wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is elevated: predicted aces ~15.91 for the contest, reflecting Rottgering’s superior serve index. On a medium-paced hard court, that figure aligns with the surface producing a moderate number of aces. The double faults prediction and expected double faults are modest (about 5.94 total); a higher-serve-rated player can lift ace counts while not necessarily reducing double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’s superior rank and Elo, plus fresher legs, give him the edge despite Rottgering’s strong serve and return indices. The key factor to watch will be whether Rottgering’s recent heavy minutes blunt his serve effectiveness or instead translate into aggressive service pressure.

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