Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Jodar comes mainly from surface fit and recent results at this level. Jodar has a higher surface strength index, 42.03 versus Tabilo's 27.65, which is reflected in the 8.3 percentage point boost toward him from surface fit. Recent record by level adds another 7.3 points to Jodar, consistent with his stronger Elo of 1956.5 compared with Tabilo's 1670.48 and a superior form index, 77.10 versus 39.96. Age also nudges the prediction toward Jodar by 3.3 points, with overall strength and serve and return making smaller contributions. Looking at match factors, Jodar is ranked 11 and comes in with substantially more time on court in this event, 176 minutes of cumulative fatigue, versus Tabilo's 79 minutes. That higher workload may show late in rallies, but the numbers behind him remain solid. Jodar's mean serve index is 95.95 and his mean return index is 91.61. Tabilo posts a similar serving profile with a 96.40 serve index, but his return index is 86.51. The difference in mean return index is greater than five points, favoring Jodar and suggesting he will create more break chances. Over their last three matches, Jodar has two wins and one loss, including a hard court win here in Cincinnati over Denis Shapovalov. Tabilo has two wins and one loss as well, including a straight sets win in his most recent Cincinnati match, but he lost the previous meeting with Jodar in Washington.