Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Jodar comes mainly from surface fit and recent results at this level. Jodar enters with a higher form index (74.08) and an Elo of 1916.8, compared with Tabilo’s form index of 47.62 and Elo of 1666.4; those gaps help explain the tilt toward Jodar. On hard courts both players show similar surface strength indices (Jodar 32.41, Tabilo 31.17), but Jodar’s steady run through Washington — straight-set wins over Nishikori and Fils plus a three-set win over Musetti — has been more efficient and has kept him fresher (300 minutes on court) than Tabilo (377 minutes). Serve and return nuances slightly favor Tabilo in the model, driven by a tiny serve edge: mean serve indices are nearly identical (Jodar 95.83, Tabilo 96.37), while Jodar’s mean return index (91.61) is stronger than Tabilo’s (86.65). The combined interpretation is that Tabilo’s serving can hold up, but Jodar’s return game and superior recent form give him control in rallies. Over their last three matches here, both players are unbeaten, but Tabilo’s wins have come in longer matches (two over 140 minutes), which contributes to his higher fatigue.