Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Jodar comes mainly from his recent record at this level and his hard-court form here: “recent record by level” and “surface fit” are the largest drivers toward Jodar. He’s won three straight matches in Toronto, including straight-set victories over Lorenzo Musetti and Jiri Lehecka, which underpins that level-specific momentum. Jodar’s form index (83.27) and higher Elo (1975.9) back up a strong run this week, even though his cumulative fatigue (306 minutes) is higher than Fils (280 minutes). Surface fit and recent form also tilt toward Jodar despite raw surface-strength figures that are close: Jodar’s surface strength index is 41.08 versus Fils’s 44.51, but Jodar’s match-by-match hard-court results here give him the practical edge in the model’s surface assessment. Fils carries a slight overall-strength signal in the model (the only key factor leaning to him), which aligns with his marginally higher ranking (22 vs 24). Serve and return profiles are both excellent; neither mean serve nor mean return differ by more than five points, so there’s no large baseline-serving advantage on paper. Over the last three matches both players are unbeaten in Toronto — Jodar has been efficient (two straight-set wins and one 2–1), while Fils also boasts straight-set wins over Cameron Norrie and Mariano Navone.