Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #13
35%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
65%
Expected Total Games: 27.1
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +5.1 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +4.9 Daniil Medvedev
Age +4.3 Rafael Jodar
Recent record by level +4.0 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +3.0 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #13 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #57 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #165 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #309 2025-09-29

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #13 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 63.9
ELO Rating: 1938.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1938.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 574.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 41.7
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.4

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 70.2
ELO Rating: 1972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1924.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 398.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Shanghai 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Shanghai 150 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Shanghai 162 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) hard Shanghai 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (0-2) hard Tokio 67 min

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Daniil Medvedev is favoured in the Shanghai Semifinals, with a 65% win probability to Rafael Jodar’s 35%. The forecast points to 27.1 total games, suggesting a competitive match despite the gap in win chances.

Match Analysis

Medvedev’s higher ranking and stronger overall profile underpin his advantage, with a slight serve edge supporting it. Jodar has the sharper return profile, giving him a way to pressure Medvedev’s service games, while his age advantage is another counterweight. Recent results also tilt toward Medvedev: he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets before a three-set win over Tommy Paul. Jodar has won three straight in Shanghai, but each lasted three sets, including his quarterfinal against Casper Ruud. He has spent 574 minutes on court, 176 more than Medvedev, so the heavier workload could matter if the match goes long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.1 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Daniil Medvedev) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Daniil Medvedev wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 8.1 aces and 3.7 double faults, against Jodar’s 4.1 aces and 2.2 double faults. Medvedev’s slight serve advantage supports the ace gap, though Jodar’s stronger returning could limit it.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.0 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Rafael Jodar 4.1 + Daniil Medvedev 8.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Rafael Jodar 2.2 + Daniil Medvedev 3.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Rafael Jodar

Expected 4.1 aces

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Rafael Jodar

Expected 2.2 double faults

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rafael Jodar's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (36.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jodar’s best chance to overturn the forecast is to make his return advantage count and put sustained pressure on Medvedev’s service games. The extra court time he has logged makes that task more demanding.

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