Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Raphael Collignon vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #55
16%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #20
84%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +9.2 Jiri Lehecka
Recent record by level +6.6 Jiri Lehecka
Recent form +4.7 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +4.6 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +4.5 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 84% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #55 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #71 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #72 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #73 2025-10-20

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #20 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 15.7
ELO Rating: 1583.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1692.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1855.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1860.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.7
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Raphael Collignon
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-1) hard Brussels 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Gorzny (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-2) hard Winston Salem 190 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) hard Cincinnati 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) hard Toronto 74 min

Jiri Lehecka
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Raphael Collignon
vs
1
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is a strong favourite in this Round of 16 match, with the forecast giving him an 84% chance of winning against Raphael Collignon’s 16%. The expected total is 25.0 games.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is their overall level and hard-court profile. Lehecka is ranked 20th, compared with Collignon at 55th, and has the stronger record on this surface, giving him a more convincing base for the matchup. Their serve numbers are close, and Collignon has a slight edge in the return profile, but the combined serve-and-return matchup still favours Lehecka. His stronger broader level and form profile help explain the gap in the forecast, even though neither player arrives on a clear winning run.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Raphael Collignon - Jiri Lehecka) -5.2 Most likely spread: -6 (Jiri Lehecka wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected for 8.4 aces and Collignon for 7.2. Their serve profiles are similar, which fits the relatively close ace estimates, with Lehecka only slightly ahead. Collignon is projected for 4.7 double faults, compared with 2.5 for Lehecka. That difference gives Lehecka another advantage in a match where their expected ace totals are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Raphael Collignon 7.2 + Jiri Lehecka 8.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.1 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Raphael Collignon 4.7 + Jiri Lehecka 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Raphael Collignon

Expected 7.2 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 8.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Raphael Collignon

Expected 4.7 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Raphael Collignon's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (57.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Collignon’s relative return strength is the most plausible way to change the forecast. If he can use it to put sustained pressure on Lehecka’s serve, the gap in their broader profiles may count for less.

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