Gstaad Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #42
50%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #45
50%
Expected Total Games: 26.5
Predicted Winner: Raphael Collignon

Why the Model Favors Raphael Collignon

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +1.8 Raphael Collignon
Serve & return game +1.6 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Recent form +0.7 Raphael Collignon

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Raphael Collignon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #42 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #65 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #72 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #90 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-07-14

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #45 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #69 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #83 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #109 2025-07-14

Player Metrics

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 1721.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1766.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 417.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.4
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 92.2

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 1733.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 390.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 34.6
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Raphael Collignon
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Raphael Collignon
vs
1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

This semi-final in Gstaad, Switzerland, on clay (ATP 250 level) shapes up as a razor-close matchup. The model nudges Raphael Collignon to the upset at 50.49% over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (49.51%), with a predicted total of about 26.49 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Collignon is driven primarily by surface fit ( +1.8 percentage points) and a smaller boost from recent form (+0.7), while Cerundolo earns a counterweight from his serve & return profile (+1.6). Collignon is the higher-ranked player (No. 42) with an Elo of 1721.20 and a form index of 51.71; he carries 417 minutes of court time at this event. His mean return index (92.18) and mean serve index (96.49) are both strong on paper. Cerundolo sits just behind in the rankings (No. 45) with a slightly higher form index (53.17) and a higher Elo (1733.03), and has slightly less cumulative fatigue (390 minutes). His surface strength index (34.59) is higher than Collignon’s (21.46), and his serve/return indices (serve 95.21, return 88.44) underpin the serve & return factor that favors him. Both players arrive in good form at Gstaad: Collignon has three straight wins on clay here (vs. Skatov, Sonego, Vacherot), including a straight-sets victory over Sonego and two three-set wins (match times 158, 128, 131 minutes). Cerundolo likewise has three wins at the venue (vs. Kolar, Kecmanovic, Ruud), all settled in two or three sets with match durations clustered around 128–134 minutes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.5 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Raphael Collignon - Juan Manuel Cerundolo) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the model forecasts about 11.36 total aces for the match, while the predicted aces figure is constrained by the clay surface, which typically reduces free points. Double faults prediction: expected double faults are 8.14 for the match. Given the slow, high-bouncing court and no large serve-rating gap between the two players, neither side is likely to produce a huge ace haul, and expected double faults may rise as fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.4 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.1 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Raphael Collignon's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Collignon’s narrow projected advantage stems chiefly from the model’s surface-fit signal, reinforced by his recent results at Gstaad. The decisive factor to watch will be return efficiency versus accumulating fatigue—those two elements should determine which player can seize the tight margins.

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