Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Reilly Opelka vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #74
40%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #74 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #103 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #145 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #295 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #371 2024-07-29

Tomas Machac

  • Current #22 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-07-29

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 946.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 115.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 83.3

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 49.1
ELO Rating: 1278.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.5
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs August Holmgren (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) grass Halle 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) grass Halle 59 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) grass Halle 133 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
2
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Reilly Opelka and Tomas Machac is set to take place in the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Canada, on hard courts. The prediction leans in favor of Tomas Machac, who holds a 60.13% probability of winning, compared to Reilly Opelka's 39.87%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is projected to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 74th, has a form index of 50.11 and an Elo rating of approximately 946.55. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 115 minutes, indicating a heavier load in recent matches. Opelka's surface strength index is 7.89, and he possesses a mean serve index of 98.54, which is significantly stronger compared to Machac's mean serve index of 95.35. Additionally, his mean return index is 83.31, which is lower than Machac's 87.19, highlighting a critical difference in return capabilities. Contrastingly, Tomas Machac is ranked 22nd, showcasing a higher Elo rating of 1278.39 and a lower cumulative fatigue level at 0 minutes, suggesting he comes into the match fresh. His surface strength index is notably better at 15.48, contributing to his overall advantage. In recent performances, Machac has shown resilience, with one win and two losses, including a challenging match at Wimbledon, while Opelka has also experienced a mixed bag with two wins and one loss, indicating he has faced tough competition.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's superior ranking, fresh condition, and better return index provide him with a significant edge in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of each player's serve, particularly how Opelka's powerful serve can be countered by Machac's return game.

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