Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Hijikata comes mainly from recent form and the combined serve and return profile. Hijikata carries a noticeably higher form index (42.49) than Collignon (28.07), and a slightly higher Elo (1646 versus 1634). That recent uptick is reflected in his win in Winston Salem over Darwin Blanch and a straight sets victory in Cincinnati against Luciano Darderi. Collignon arrives with three straight losses, including recent hard court defeats to Mariano Navone and Alexei Popyrin. That run strongly pushed the projection toward Hijikata by about 5.5 percentage points. Serve and return numbers also nudge the market toward Hijikata by about 3.0 points. Both players post similar mean serve indices (Collignon 96.39, Hijikata 95.26) and nearly identical mean return indices (Collignon 87.36, Hijikata 87.07), so there is no large single-server advantage. Fatigue is a subtle factor in the other direction. Collignon reports zero minutes on court here, while Hijikata has logged 98 minutes already. The model gives about 0.6 points to Collignon for that workload difference. Surface strength favors Hijikata modestly, with a higher surface index (27.48 versus 17.68).