London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Holger Rune vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #9
62%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #51
38%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #9 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #15 (2024-06-17)

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current Rank: #51 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #50 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #51 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #62 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #83 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 73.4
ELO Rating: 2502.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 85.3

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1169.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 9.7
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-1) grass London 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Roberto Bautista Agut
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-1) grass London 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Hamburg 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) clay Hamburg 86 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Holger Rune
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match at the ATP 500 tournament in London features Holger Rune, currently ranked 9th, against Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked 51st. Given Rune's strong form and superior statistics, he is favored to win with a probability of 62.42%, while Bautista Agut holds a 37.58% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this match is estimated at 23.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune's statistics portray him as a formidable opponent. With a form index of 73.38 and an Elo rating of 2502.66, he demonstrates solid recent performances. His surface strength index of 23.88 indicates his capability on grass, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.05 and a mean return index of 85.26, both of which are significantly high. In contrast, Roberto Bautista Agut, with a form index of 40.98 and an Elo rating of 1169.86, has struggled on this surface, reflected in his lower surface strength index of 9.63. Moreover, Rune's mean serve index surpasses Bautista Agut's by more than 5 points, which could be a decisive factor in their matchup. When examining their recent performances, Rune has won his last match against Mackenzie McDonald in London, showcasing resilience despite a prior defeat at Roland Garros to Lorenzo Musetti. Bautista Agut, on the other hand, has found some success in his latest outing against Jakub Mensik but was eliminated by Rune in their previous encounter at Roland Garros. The cumulative fatigue is also noteworthy; Rune has 81 minutes of court time while Bautista Agut's fatigue is significantly higher at 141 minutes, potentially impacting his performance.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's superior rank, form, and recent performance, along with a significant advantage in serving capabilities, provide him with a distinct edge over Roberto Bautista Agut. A key factor to monitor during this match will be how well Rune can capitalize on his serve, as this could dictate the pace and outcome of the game.