Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #85
41%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #51
59%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Ranking Trends

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current Rank: #85 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #56 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #51 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #54 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #53 (2024-07-29)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current Rank: #51 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #59 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #93 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #106 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 21.8
ELO Rating: 892.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.4

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 791.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1570.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Roberto Carballes Baena
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (0-2) clay Umag 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (0-2) clay Gstaad 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Carlos Taberner (2-1) clay Gstaad 153 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Ofner (0-1) clay Rome 50 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Umag 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (2-0) clay Umag 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francesco Passaro (2-1) clay Umag 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (0-2) clay Bastad 112 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) clay Bastad 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Carballes Baena
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, hard court conditions will set the stage for an intriguing matchup between Roberto Carballes Baena and Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The predicted winner, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, holds a 58.83% probability of victory, while Roberto Carballes Baena is at 41.17%. The forecast anticipates a competitive match with a total of approximately 22 games played.

Match Analysis

Roberto Carballes Baena, currently ranked 85, possesses a form index of 21.76 and an Elo rating of 892.17, indicating moderate competitiveness. His fatigue level is at 0.0, suggesting he enters the match with no prior exertion in the current tournament. Baena's surface strength index stands at 9.01, while his mean serve index is 96.29, and mean return index is 87.44. This indicates he has a solid serve, although not overwhelming, and a decent returning capability. In contrast, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 51, has a higher form index of 51.80 and an Elo rating of 791.72, reflecting stronger recent performance metrics. Carabelli also enters the match without fatigue (0.0) and has a surface strength index of 5.52. His mean serve index is 95.10, and he has a significantly higher mean return index of 88.94 compared to Baena, showcasing a notable advantage of over 5 points in returning ability. Over their last three matches, Baena has struggled, losing two consecutive matches on clay and winning one, while Carabelli has shown more resilience, winning two out of his last three matches.

Final Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli appears to have the upper hand, primarily due to his better recent form and superior return capabilities. The key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Carabelli's return game, as this could disrupt Baena's service rhythm and dictate the flow of the match.