Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #89
49%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #126
51%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Hugo Gaston

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current #89 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #56 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #55 2024-08-12

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #126 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #78 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #83 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #81 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #61 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 30.8
ELO Rating: 903.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.6

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 35.2
ELO Rating: 678.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Roberto Carballes Baena
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Hugo Gaston
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Carballes Baena
vs
2
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 tournament, Roberto Carballes Baena faces off against Hugo Gaston on hard courts in Ohio. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Gaston slightly favored to win with a probability of 50.83%, compared to Carballes Baena's 49.17%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter stands at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Roberto Carballes Baena holds a rank of 89 with a form index of 30.82, while Hugo Gaston is ranked 126 with a higher form index of 35.16. Carballes Baena's Elo rating of 903.66 is significantly higher than Gaston's 678.31, indicating stronger historical performance. Both players show no fatigue, having recently played matches without extended durations on court. Carballes Baena has a surface strength index of 9.04, compared to Gaston’s 6.70, suggesting he is more adept on hard courts. Although the mean serve indices are close (Carballes Baena at 96.34 and Gaston at 95.13), Gaston boasts a superior mean return index of 89.54 against Carballes Baena's 87.57. In their recent performances, Carballes Baena has had a mixed bag, losing his latest match against Taylor Fritz after winning against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the previous round. Gaston, likewise, has struggled, having lost to Andrey Rublev in his last match but managed to secure a win against Mattia Bellucci in the match prior. Both players have shown vulnerability, but Gaston's recent victory could bolster his confidence.

Final Prediction

Hugo Gaston’s slight edge in form and his superior return game may provide him with the necessary advantage to secure a win against Carballes Baena. A key factor to watch will be Gaston’s ability to capitalize on any return opportunities, as his higher return index suggests he may have the upper hand in rallies.

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