Umag Croatia Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #79
44%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #112
56%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current #79 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #56 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #57 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #55 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #51 2024-07-22

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #112 2025-07-14
  • 3 mo ago #157 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #206 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #314 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #443 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 28.3
ELO Rating: 919.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 54.8
ELO Rating: 627.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Roberto Carballes Baena
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (0-2) clay Gstaad 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Carlos Taberner (2-1) clay Gstaad 153 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Ofner (0-1) clay Rome 50 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) clay Barcelona 113 min

Nikoloz Basilashvili
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Carballes Baena
vs
0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Roberto Carballes Baena and Nikoloz Basilashvili at the Umag tournament in Croatia marks an intriguing Round of 32 clash on clay. The predicted winner is Nikoloz Basilashvili, who has a 56.46% probability of victory compared to Carballes Baena's 43.54%. The anticipated total number of games played is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Roberto Carballes Baena holds a rank of 79 with a form index of 28.25 and an Elo rating of 919.13. His surface strength index stands at 7.58, while his mean serve index is 96.31 and mean return index is 87.34. In contrast, Nikoloz Basilashvili, ranked 112, has a higher form index of 54.76 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 627.54. His surface strength index is 3.12, with a mean serve index of 93.69 and a mean return index of 86.67. Notably, the mean serve index of Carballes Baena is 2.62 points higher than Basilashvili's, but the difference in return indices is marginal. In their recent performances, Carballes Baena has struggled, losing his last match in Gstaad, while managing a win against Carlos Taberner in a previous match. His latest results reflect a challenging transition from grass to clay. Conversely, Basilashvili also faced defeat in his last match against Arthur Cazaux but had a successful outing against Lorenzo Musetti at Wimbledon. Both players are looking to regain form, but Basilashvili's higher recent performance index gives him a slight edge.

Final Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili's advantage lies in his higher form index and recent match experience, despite a lower Elo rating. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of both players' serving games, particularly given Carballes Baena's superior serve index. As they square off on clay, this element could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the match.

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