Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alejandro Tabilo vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #42
50%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #52
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #42 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #122 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #61 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-02-24

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #52 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 58.9
ELO Rating: 816.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 226.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 90.0
Return Rating: 53.2

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 48.8
ELO Rating: 1197.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1672.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 153.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Santiago, Chile is a clay-court showdown at a 250-level event between Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastián Báez. The model gives Tabilo a very narrow edge — 50.07% to Báez’s 49.93% — with a predicted total of about 23.35 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo (rank 42) arrives with a higher form index (58.93) but a lower Elo (816.87) than Báez (rank 52, form 48.82, Elo 1197.45). Tabilo’s cumulative fatigue for the tournament is higher (226 minutes) versus Báez’s 153 minutes, which could matter late on clay. Both players show modest surface strength indices (Tabilo 6.70, Báez 8.48) on clay, where movement and consistency are prized. Serve and return profiles diverge: Báez posts a higher mean serve index (97.23) compared with Tabilo (90.02) — a gap larger than 5 points — and an even more pronounced advantage in mean return (Báez 93.90 vs Tabilo 53.19), a difference that strongly favors Báez in baseline exchanges. Recent form tells a mixed story: Tabilo has two wins in Santiago (defeating Tirante in a 127-minute third-set match and Barrios Vera in 99 minutes) and a earlier loss in Rio, while Báez has one win in Santiago over Garín (153 minutes) and two earlier losses in Rio and Buenos Aires.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 16.86 total for the match while the expected double faults are 5.74. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and high bounce reduce outright service winners, and expected double faults can creep up as long rallies and fatigue set in. Báez’s superior serve rating could lift the predicted aces slightly in his favor, but the surface and match length will temper that effect.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s marginal advantage comes from recent form and resilience in Santiago, but this is razor-close — Báez’s superior Elo and return game are the counterweight. Watch the return/serve battle and late-match fatigue; whoever controls return opportunities on the clay is likely to decide the quarterfinal.

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