Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #65
36%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #11
64%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #65 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-05-05

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #11 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #76 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 38.6
ELO Rating: 1658.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1755.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 102.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 16.0
Grass: 12.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 95.5

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 26.4
ELO Rating: 1714.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1805.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 37.0
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 84.3

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) clay Rome 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Vilius Gaubas (0-2) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Barcelona 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 107 min

Alexander Bublik
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 64 on clay, Alexander Bublik is favored to progress against Sebastian Baez. The model gives Bublik a 64.12% chance to win versus 35.88% for Baez, with a predicted total of roughly 27 games in the match (26.91).

Match Analysis

On paper Bublik enters as the higher-ranked player (No. 11 vs No. 65) with a superior Elo (1714 vs 1658) and a stronger clay surface index (36.96 vs 15.99). Baez, however, carries a better recent form index (38.60) than Bublik (26.41) and shows impressive return numbers. Fatigue is a clear factor: Baez has already logged 102 minutes in Rome while Bublik arrives with no minutes in this event, which could tilt close moments toward the fresher man. Serve and return profiles tell an interesting story. Both players post very similar mean serve indices (Baez 95.30, Bublik 95.54), so neither has a decisive serving edge, but Baez’s mean return index (95.49) is substantially higher than Bublik’s (84.34) — a gap worth noting on clay where returns shine. Recent form over the last three matches diverges: Baez won his Rome opener over Jenson Brooksby after two earlier clay defeats in Madrid and Barcelona, while Bublik has been unable to convert recent tour-level returns, losing his last three matches in straight sets in Madrid, Munich and Monte Carlo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Sebastian Baez wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.21 for the match and the predicted aces will be moderated by the slow clay surface. Expected double faults are 3.62; clay’s longer rallies and Baez’s accumulated minutes could contribute to late-match lapses. Both players carry high serve indices, so the predicted aces are more a function of serve aggressiveness than a clear serving superiority.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

27.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sebastian Baez's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s ranking, fresher legs and higher Elo give him the edge on paper, especially in tight service games. The key factor to watch is Baez’s returning pressure early on — if he can convert that into breaks before fatigue sets in, the match could become tighter than the raw probabilities suggest.

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