Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Baez arrives ranked 35 with a stronger form index (52.18) and a considerably higher Elo (1284.54) than Carabelli, who is ranked 48 with a form index of 37.69 and an Elo of 975.03. Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Carabelli has accumulated 247 minutes on court this week versus Baez’s 83, which could affect physical sharpness late in rallies on the demanding clay. Surface strength indices are relatively close (Carabelli 7.30, Baez 8.84), so neither player has a decisive clay-specialist edge from those metrics. Serve and return profiles strongly favor Baez. His mean serve index (97.22) tops Carabelli’s (76.22) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (93.97) similarly exceeds Carabelli’s (71.72) by roughly the same margin—differences large enough to expect Baez to impose his game on both service and receiving phases. Recent form: Carabelli has won his two Buenos Aires matches in straight sets after a long hard-court loss at the Australian Open, including lengthy 122–125 minute matches this week; Baez has also progressed comfortably, with a quick 83-minute win in his last match and mixed longer matches earlier in the season.