Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #35
41%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #35 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-02-10

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 1289.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 202.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 69.3
Return Rating: 85.8

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 71.8
ELO Rating: 1641.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 173.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
2
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is the Buenos Aires semifinal on clay at an ATP 250 event, featuring Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi. The model favors Luciano Darderi (59.11% win probability) over Sebastian Baez (40.89%), with an expected total of about 23.12 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Baez enters ranked 35 with a form index of 60.81 and an Elo of 1289.38; he has accumulated 202 minutes on court this week and registers a surface strength index of 7.72. Darderi is ranked 23 with a higher form index of 71.81 and a stronger Elo at 1641.77; his tournament fatigue is 173 minutes and his surface strength index is 12.92. There is a marked serving gap: Darderi’s mean serve index (97.09) exceeds Baez’s (69.28) by more than 5 points, which will influence short-term service dominance. Return ability is similar — Baez 85.83 vs Darderi 87.69 — so returning won’t be a major differentiator on paper. Looking at recent matches, both players have been efficient in Buenos Aires: Baez recorded straight-set wins over Ignacio Buse and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, while Darderi beat Pedro Martinez and Tomas Barrios Vera in straight sets. Their prior meeting at the Australian Open saw Darderi beat Baez in four sets, a result reflected in both the Elo gap and recent form trends. Fatigue figures show Baez has spent more time on court this week, which could be relevant late in rallies on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Sebastian Baez wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces ~15.91, and expected double faults ~5.94. Clay typically reduces ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, but Darderi’s much higher serve rating suggests he may still generate a disproportionate share of the predicted aces. For double faults prediction, longer rallies and accumulated fatigue on clay can increase errors, so the expected double faults reflect that tendency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher form, Elo and especially his serve index give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Baez copes with Darderi’s serve pressure and whether his slightly higher fatigue translates into late-match service breaks.

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