Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #53
29%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #14
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Why the Model Favors Valentin Vacherot

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.5 Valentin Vacherot
Recent form +4.8 Valentin Vacherot
Serve & return game +4.1 Valentin Vacherot
Surface fit +2.3 Valentin Vacherot
Overall strength +1.9 Valentin Vacherot

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Valentin Vacherot. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #53 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #57 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #65 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #43 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #42 2025-09-29

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #14 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #23 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #204 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 33.7
ELO Rating: 1589.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1682.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 116.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 90.5

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 43.2
ELO Rating: 1776.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1766.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.9
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Valentin Vacherot
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valentin Vacherot is favored, taking 71% of the win probability to Sebastian Baez’s 29%, with 23.2 games expected. The Round of 64 match in Shanghai tilts toward Vacherot, whose recent results have been stronger.

Match Analysis

Vacherot’s two wins over Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Tokyo give him the stronger recent record, despite his loss to Jiri Lehecka in his last match. Baez has one win in his last three, against Marcos Giron, and has spent 116 minutes on court in Shanghai, while Vacherot has yet to play there. The surface and broader strength also point Vacherot’s way: he is ranked 14th to Baez’s 53rd and has been more effective on hard courts. His serve is marginally stronger, although Baez has the better return profile, giving Baez a way to put pressure on Vacherot’s service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Valentin Vacherot) -3.0 Most likely spread: -4 (Valentin Vacherot wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vacherot is projected for 9.0 aces and 2.7 double faults, against 3.1 aces and 2.0 double faults for Baez. Vacherot’s slightly stronger serving profile supports the larger ace forecast, while the hard court’s consistent bounce offers both players a stable serving surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Sebastian Baez 3.1 + Valentin Vacherot 9.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Sebastian Baez 2.0 + Valentin Vacherot 2.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Sebastian Baez

Expected 3.1 aces

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 9.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Sebastian Baez

Expected 2.0 double faults

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sebastian Baez's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (46.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Baez’s stronger return is the specific route to changing the forecast. If he can turn that advantage into sustained pressure on Vacherot’s serve, it could narrow the gap.

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