Shintaro Mochizuki vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper Khachanov holds the experience and metrics edge: world No. 18 with an Elo around 2001 and a form index near 49.9, versus Mochizuki at No. 115, Elo ~512 and a form index near 31.2. Fatigue also favors Khachanov — he has no minutes logged in this event while Mochizuki has 116 minutes on court. Surface strength indices show Khachanov (12.23) with a clearer edge over Mochizuki (2.83) on hard courts. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Khachanov’s mean serve index is very high (97.46) compared with Mochizuki’s 46.43 — a gap well above 5 points that should be decisive on service holds and ace opportunities. Both players have strong return indices (Mochizuki 86.15, Khachanov 90.42) but that difference is under 5 points and less pronounced. Over their last three matches Mochizuki has one win (Al Sulaiti) and two losses, including a straight-set defeat to Roberto Carballes Baena in Doha and a four-set loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Australian Open. Khachanov’s recent form shows a win over Jesper de Jong, a loss to Jaume Munar in Rotterdam, and a three-set defeat at the Australian Open, indicating some inconsistency but sustained power and court time management.