Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Luciano Darderi vs Shintaro Mochizuki Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #29
65%
VS

Shintaro Mochizuki

Rank: #102
35%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #29 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #47 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #45 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #44 (2024-10-14)

Shintaro Mochizuki

  • Current Rank: #102 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #125 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #153 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #169 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #148 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1176.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.0

Shintaro Mochizuki

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 573.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) hard Shanghai 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Shanghai 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Tokio 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (2-0) hard Tokio 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Chengdu 86 min

Shintaro Mochizuki
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) hard Almaty 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-2) hard Tokio 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Shintaro Mochizuki
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 clash at the Almaty tournament in Kazakhstan features Luciano Darderi facing off against Shintaro Mochizuki. This hard-court showdown in an ATP 250 event sees Darderi favored to win with a probability of 64.94%, while Mochizuki's chances stand at 35.06%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi, currently ranked 29, boasts a solid form index of 41.40 and an Elo rating of 1176.36, which indicates his competitive edge. He has shown resilience, with a notably low fatigue level of 0.0 minutes in this tournament, and a strong surface strength index of 7.88. His mean serve index of 96.76 is significantly higher than Mochizuki's 93.24, creating a 3.52 point advantage. Furthermore, Darderi's mean return index of 85.96 also surpasses Mochizuki's 90.03 by over 5 points, highlighting his effectiveness in returning serves. Shintaro Mochizuki, ranked 102, has a form index of 56.62 and an Elo rating of 573.88. However, he has accumulated 89.0 minutes of fatigue in this tournament, which could impact his performance. Despite a strong showing in his last match against Arthur Cazaux, where he won in straight sets, his previous two matches against higher-ranked opponents resulted in losses, indicating a struggle against elite competition.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi's higher rank, superior service capabilities, and significantly lower fatigue level give him a distinct advantage heading into this match. A key factor to observe will be Darderi's ability to leverage his strong serve and return game against Mochizuki, especially considering the latter's fatigue from earlier rounds.

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