Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Sho Shimabukuro vs Sebastian Korda Prediction

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #271
34%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #79
66%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Korda

Player Metrics

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 477.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 248.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 2.3
Grass: 3.0
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 84.7

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 50.5
ELO Rating: 1543.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 15.2
Grass: 18.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Tokio 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yuta Shimizu (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Li Tu (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Sebastian Korda

  • Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Tokio 149 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Hangzhou 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Winston Salem 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sho Shimabukuro
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo features Sho Shimabukuro taking on Sebastian Korda on hard courts. With Korda favored to win at a probability of 65.75%, compared to Shimabukuro's 34.25%, the predicted total number of games played is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Korda, currently ranked 79, holds a significant advantage over Sho Shimabukuro, who is ranked 271. Korda's Elo rating of 1543.84 and a surface strength index of 13.22 indicate a more robust performance on hard courts compared to Shimabukuro's Elo rating of 477.81 and surface strength index of 3.74. Korda's mean serve index is slightly higher at 95.49, while both players have comparable return indices, with Korda at 85.30 and Shimabukuro at 84.66. The difference in their serve index is minimal, but Korda's overall higher ranking and performance metrics suggest he is better equipped for this matchup. In their recent matches, Korda has shown mixed results, winning two out of his last three games, although he did drop a match against Yibing Wu. His last encounter saw him secure a hard-fought victory against Marcos Giron. Conversely, Shimabukuro has recorded a perfect run in Tokyo thus far, winning all three of his matches in straight sets, showcasing his current form index of 56.61. However, the cumulative fatigue of 248 minutes on court may impact his performance, particularly against a seasoned player like Korda, who has a lower fatigue count of 149 minutes.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Korda's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and recent match experience provide him with a distinct edge over Sho Shimabukuro. The key factor to watch will be how Shimabukuro manages his fatigue, as it could influence his ability to compete effectively against Korda’s consistent serving and overall game strategy.