Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #151
13%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
87%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.1 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +6.5 Jiri Lehecka
Age +6.3 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +4.8 Jiri Lehecka
Recent form +4.4 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 87% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #151 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #125 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #106 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #139 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #158 2025-10-27

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #21 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 23.2
ELO Rating: 1512.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1593.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.7
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 40.9
ELO Rating: 1831.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1853.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.9
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Stan Wawrinka
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Jiri Lehecka
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stan Wawrinka
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is a strong favourite in this Basel Round of 32 match, with an 87% win probability to Stan Wawrinka’s 13%. The forecast is for 23.1 total games.

Match Analysis

Lehecka’s No. 21 ranking, compared with Wawrinka’s No. 151, reflects a substantial gap in current level, and Lehecka has the stronger hard-court profile. The forecast leans most on Lehecka’s record at this level and overall strength, rather than a decisive difference in serving. Recent results do not show a dominant run from either player: each has won once in their last three matches. Lehecka beat Raphael Collignon, while Wawrinka’s recent win came against Martin Landaluce, so the prediction rests more on Lehecka’s broader level and surface suitability than on a hot streak.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stan Wawrinka - Jiri Lehecka) -5.2 Most likely spread: -6 (Jiri Lehecka wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Wawrinka is projected for 6.4 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Lehecka is forecast for 10.4 aces and 1.8 double faults. Their serve profiles are fairly close, but Lehecka’s slight advantage fits the larger expected ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Stan Wawrinka 6.3 + Jiri Lehecka 10.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Stan Wawrinka 2.1 + Jiri Lehecka 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Stan Wawrinka

Expected 6.3 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 10.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Stan Wawrinka

Expected 2.1 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stan Wawrinka's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (56.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Wawrinka’s comparatively stronger return offers his best chance of an upset. If he can turn that into sustained pressure on Lehecka’s service games, the forecast could be challenged.

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