Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #39
69%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #82
31%
Expected Total Games: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent form +5.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall strength +3.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent record by level +3.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Surface fit +1.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #39 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #80 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-10-20

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #82 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #97 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #56 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #65 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1854.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1785.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.8
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.7

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 30.4
ELO Rating: 1527.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.0
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 83.7

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tsitsipas is favored, at 69% to Kovacevic’s 32%. The Almaty Round of 32 is projected to last 25.0 games.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas has the stronger return game, giving him an advantage in the exchanges, while their serving levels are closely matched. He is ranked 39th, well ahead of Kovacevic at 82nd, and the broader strength comparison also favors him. The hard-court matchup leans Tsitsipas’s way too, though less decisively than the return comparison. Recent form also supports Tsitsipas: he beat Taylor Fritz and Luciano Darderi in Shanghai before losing to Daniil Medvedev. Kovacevic has won only once in his last three, with defeats to Jaume Munar and Matteo Berrettini.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Aleksandar Kovacevic) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tsitsipas is projected for 10.2 aces and Kovacevic 10.3, a near-even tally that fits their similar serving strength. The double-fault forecasts are 2.6 for Tsitsipas and 3.5 for Kovacevic, leaving Kovacevic with the higher projected count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.5 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 10.2 + Aleksandar Kovacevic 10.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.6 + Aleksandar Kovacevic 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 10.2 aces

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Expected 10.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.6 double faults

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (43.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kovacevic’s serve is the clearest way to disrupt the forecast. If he turns that near-equal serving strength into enough free points, he can blunt Tsitsipas’s return advantage.

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