Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #39
77%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #73
23%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent record by level +8.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Age +4.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Surface fit +3.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall strength +3.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #39 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #80 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-10-20

James Duckworth

  • Current #73 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #79 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #88 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #108 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 60.9
ELO Rating: 1863.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1793.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 181.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.5
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.8

James Duckworth

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1629.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1624.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.2
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 84.4

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

James Duckworth
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured at 77%, with James Duckworth at 23%. The expected total is 23.6 games.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas has the stronger overall profile, ranked 39th to Duckworth’s 73rd, and holds the advantage in the serve-and-return comparison. His hard-court fit is also better, a useful edge on a surface that gives both players opportunities to serve and return effectively. Duckworth’s recent run makes him a credible threat: he has beaten Miomir Kecmanovic and Luciano Darderi in straight sets in Almaty. Tsitsipas has also won twice at the event, including a straight-set victory over Mikhail Kukushkin, and has the broader ranking advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - James Duckworth) +3.3 Most likely spread: +3 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tsitsipas is projected for 9.1 aces and 2.6 double faults, while Duckworth is projected for 7.4 aces and 3.0 double faults. Their serve levels are close, though Tsitsipas has a slight advantage, which fits the higher ace estimate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 9.1 + James Duckworth 7.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.6 + James Duckworth 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 9.1 aces

James Duckworth

Expected 7.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.6 double faults

James Duckworth

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (51.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Duckworth’s serve is close to Tsitsipas’s, giving him a specific route to trouble the favourite. If he uses it to earn enough free points to limit Tsitsipas’s return advantage, the forecast could be tested.

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