Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Jenson Brooksby vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #74
45%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #49
55%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +3.6 Jenson Brooksby
Recent record by level +3.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall strength +3.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall record & opposition quality +2.9 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serve & return game +2.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 44.3
ELO Rating: 1596.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 60.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 14.9
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 90.0

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 45.5
ELO Rating: 1734.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1734.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.1
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Cincinnati 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Cincinnati 118 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Martin Damm (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Keegan Rice (2-0) hard Toronto 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem, North Carolina hosts a hard-court Round of 32 match at the 2026 ATP 250 level between Jenson Brooksby and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The model picks Stefanos Tsitsipas to win, with a 55.33% probability versus a 44.67% chance for Jenson Brooksby. The match is expected to be relatively short for a best-of-three, with an anticipated total of 25.59 games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Tsitsipas stems mainly from his recent record at similar tournament levels and his overall strength metrics. Tsitsipas carries a higher Elo at 1734.9 compared with Brooksby at 1596.5, and his rank is stronger at 49 versus Brooksby at 74. Those factors, along with considerations of overall record and opposition quality, push the prediction toward Tsitsipas by several percentage points. Brooksby does gain some ground from a slightly fresher showing in recent form that nudges his chances up modestly. Looking at the raw profiles, form indexes are close, 45.55 for Tsitsipas and 44.29 for Brooksby. Surface strength indexes favor Tsitsipas 26.08 to 19.35, which matters on the NC hard courts. Fatigue is noteworthy: Brooksby has already spent 60 minutes on court this event while Tsitsipas arrives with zero minutes logged. Serve and return metrics are similar for both players, so neither enjoys a large statistical serving edge going into the match. Recent results show Brooksby with one win and two losses in his last three matches, including a straight sets win in Winston-Salem over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Tsitsipas is 1-2 in his last three outings, with his lone win coming in a longer match versus Valentin Royer and defeats to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Joao Fonseca.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Stefanos Tsitsipas) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. Positive values indicate Jenson Brooksby winning more games, negative values indicate Stefanos Tsitsipas winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at 12.66 total, with predicted aces split 8.12 for Tsitsipas and 4.78 for Brooksby. Hard courts typically yield a moderate number of aces, and these predicted aces reflect that balance. The double faults prediction is 5.4 total, broken down as 2.28 for Brooksby and 3.14 for Tsitsipas. Although their serve indexes are nearly identical, the per player ace projections show a clear edge to Tsitsipas at 8.12 versus 4.78.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Jenson Brooksby 4.8 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 8.1
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Jenson Brooksby 2.3 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Jenson Brooksby

Expected 4.8 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Jenson Brooksby serves in this match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 8.1 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Stefanos Tsitsipas serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Stefanos Tsitsipas. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Jenson Brooksby

Expected 2.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Jenson Brooksby serves in this match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 3.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Stefanos Tsitsipas serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jenson Brooksby's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.5%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jenson Brooksby's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’ advantage is driven primarily by his superior recent record by level and overall strength metrics. Watch how Tsitsipas converts free points on serve and whether Brooksby’s return quality can disrupt him early. Those elements will likely decide how close this match becomes.

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