Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #32
53%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #39
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Tallon Griekspoor

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Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #32 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #25 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #37 2025-04-14

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #39 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #23 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #29 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 48.1
ELO Rating: 1670.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1734.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.8
Clay: 42.1
Grass: 44.0
Serve Rating: 90.4
Return Rating: 62.4

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 38.1
ELO Rating: 1651.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 39.0
Grass: 41.5
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 91.0

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Miami 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Indian Wells 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) hard Indian Wells 158 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-1) hard Indian Wells 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Munich, Germany — Round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250 event sees Tallon Griekspoor face Denis Shapovalov. The model gives Griekspoor the narrow edge, 53.13% to Shapovalov’s 46.87%, with a predicted total of about 23.44 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Griekspoor arrives ranked 32 with an Elo of 1670.4 and a higher form index (48.09) than Shapovalov (38.07). His surface strength on clay (42.13) slightly outpaces Shapovalov’s 38.97, and neither player shows tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court). Shapovalov, however, posts a notably higher mean serve index (97.69 vs Griekspoor’s 90.41) — a difference worth noting — while his mean return index (91.00) far exceeds Griekspoor’s 62.45, creating an interesting serving/return dynamic. Recent results favor Griekspoor marginally: he has one win (Dubai, hard) and two straight-match losses on clay (Monte Carlo, Marrakech) with long matches of 124–135 minutes, suggesting heavy recent court time though no tournament fatigue is recorded. Shapovalov arrives on a rough patch, 0-3 in the listed matches, including a 106-minute loss on clay in Monte Carlo and straight-set defeats on hard courts. Both players have shown durability in extended matches, but the recent ledger slightly tilts toward Griekspoor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Denis Shapovalov wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match sits at about 14.92 total; the predicted aces figure is tempered by the slow, high-bouncing surface that usually reduces outright service winners. The double faults prediction is modest at 4.14 expected double faults for the match. With Shapovalov’s significantly higher serve rating, expect him to supply the bulk of the aces while the clay surface will blunt some of that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.9 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s small edges in Elo, form and clay comfort give him the projected narrow win. The decisive factor will be how Griekspoor copes with Shapovalov’s big serve and how effectively Shapovalov can leverage his superior return numbers to generate breaks.

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