Brussels Brussels Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Tallon Griekspoor vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #60
26%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #20
74%
Expected Total Games: 26.0
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.1 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +4.5 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +4.2 Jiri Lehecka
Serve & return game +2.6 Jiri Lehecka
Overall record & opposition quality +2.3 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current #60 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #33 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #26 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-10-20

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #20 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 23.9
ELO Rating: 1617.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1647.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 241.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.2
Clay: 18.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.8

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 49.6
ELO Rating: 1861.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1865.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.0
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Brussels 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Max Schoenhaus (2-1) hard Brussels 133 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pavel Kotov (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) hard Beijing 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Chengdu 91 min

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is favoured at 74% against Tallon Griekspoor’s 26% in the Brussels Quarterfinals. The projection is for 26.0 total games, pointing to a potentially extended match despite Lehecka’s clear advantage.

Match Analysis

Lehecka’s higher ranking and stronger hard-court profile underpin the gap. Griekspoor has also won twice in Brussels, including a straight-set victory over Mariano Navone, but Lehecka arrives off a straight-set win over Raphael Collignon. The workload difference could matter: Griekspoor has spent 241 minutes on court this tournament, compared with 79 for Lehecka. Their serve and return strengths are fairly close, so Lehecka’s advantage in overall level and fresher legs may be more decisive than a major mismatch in those departments.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.0 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tallon Griekspoor - Jiri Lehecka) -3.3 Most likely spread: -4 (Jiri Lehecka wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Griekspoor is projected for 9.5 aces and 2.4 double faults, while Lehecka is projected for 10.5 aces and 1.9 double faults. Their serve strengths are similar, making a close ace count plausible, with the hard court offering both chances to earn points behind the serve and a consistent bounce for the returner.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.2 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Tallon Griekspoor 9.4 + Jiri Lehecka 10.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tallon Griekspoor 2.4 + Jiri Lehecka 1.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 9.4 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 10.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tallon Griekspoor

Expected 2.4 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 1.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

54.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tallon Griekspoor's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (47.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s serve is the main threat to the forecast: if it produces enough free points to keep Lehecka from pressing on return, the underdog can make the gap count for less. Lehecka’s lower tournament workload gives him a useful advantage if the match runs long.

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