Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #4
60%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
40%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current Rank: #4 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #4 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #4 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #4 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2024-10-28)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #16 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #75 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #39 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 50.9
ELO Rating: 3736.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1820.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.2
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 44.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 85.7

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 56.1
ELO Rating: 1693.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1762.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.1
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Paris 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Basel 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Vacherot (2-1) hard Basel 156 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) hard Shanghai 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Shanghai 140 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Paris 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Paris 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) hard Vienna 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-0) hard Vienna 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Paris Masters 1000, Taylor Fritz, ranked 4th, is set to face off against 16th-ranked Alexander Bublik. The match will take place on hard courts, where Fritz holds a slight edge, with a predicted win probability of 59.94% compared to Bublik's 40.06%. The anticipated total number of games played is estimated at 23.

Match Analysis

Taylor Fritz enters this match with a robust form index of 50.91 and an impressive Elo rating of 3736.65, reflecting his strong performance on hard surfaces. His cumulative fatigue stands at 95 minutes, indicating he has managed his physical exertion well throughout the tournament. Fritz showcases a mean serve index of 98.29, significantly higher than Bublik's 95.54, which may give him an advantage in service games. Additionally, Fritz's mean return index of 85.66 is also slightly better than Bublik's 85.32, though the difference is marginal. In contrast, Alexander Bublik's form index of 56.13 and Elo rating of 1693.81 suggest he has had a mixed bag of results recently. His fatigue level is notably higher at 170 minutes, which could impact his performance against a fresher Fritz. Bublik has shown resilience in his last three matches, winning two convincingly against Corentin Moutet and Alexei Popyrin. However, his loss to Jannik Sinner in Vienna highlights potential vulnerabilities that Fritz will likely exploit.

Final Prediction

Taylor Fritz is poised to leverage his superior serving capabilities and lower fatigue levels to gain the upper hand in this match. The key factor to watch will be Fritz's ability to maintain his strong service game, as it could dictate the tempo and outcome of the match against Bublik.