Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #47
52%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #65
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

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Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 55.5
ELO Rating: 1615.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1610.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.0
Clay: 38.8
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 84.6
Return Rating: 75.5

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1586.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1586.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.3
Clay: 38.0
Grass: 42.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.2

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane

Miomir Kecmanovic

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
1
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, Round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets a testing early-season matchup between Terence Atmane and Miomir Kecmanovic. The model gives Atmane a narrow edge — 51.72% chance to win versus 48.28% for Kecmanovic — with a predicted total of about 23.7 games in the match, suggesting a likely straight-sets scoreline with some close sets.

Match Analysis

Atmane arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 47) with a stronger Elo (1615.6) and a healthier form index (55.51) compared with Kecmanovic (rank 65, Elo 1586.6, form 41.18). Both players show modest clay-specific numbers — Atmane’s surface strength index is 38.80 and Kecmanovic’s 37.98 — so neither has a pronounced clay-court advantage on paper. Fatigue is neutral for both (0 minutes in-tournament), so freshness won’t be a differentiator at the start. There is a clear split in serving and returning profiles: Kecmanovic’s mean serve index (97.80) is significantly higher than Atmane’s (84.64), and his mean return index (91.23) also exceeds Atmane’s (75.54) by more than five points in each case. That contrast suggests Kecmanovic can generate outright power and also has a strong return metric on record, though clay typically blunts pure serve speed. Recent form tells a similar story: Atmane is 1–2 across his last three, with a win over Ethan Quinn and competitive three-set losses to Etcheverry and Fils; Kecmanovic has dropped his last three matches, including tight three-set defeats in Munich and Monte Carlo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Miomir Kecmanovic) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Miomir Kecmanovic wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Positive values indicate Terence Atmane winning more games, negative values indicate Miomir Kecmanovic winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay clash is moderate: the match is expected to produce about 8.47 predicted aces overall. Given the surface, that total is muted — clay generally reduces ace numbers — yet Kecmanovic’s much higher serve rating could lift the predicted ace count. For double faults prediction, expected double faults sit at 4.59; the slower surface and longer rallies can elevate expected double faults as matches wear on.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Terence Atmane versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Atmane’s slight edge comes from better ranking, Elo and form, but Kecmanovic’s superior serve and return metrics make this a finely balanced encounter. The key factor to watch is how effectively Atmane neutralizes Kecmanovic’s serve on clay — success there likely decides the outcome.

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