Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Terence Atmane vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction

Terence Atmane

Rank: #98
46%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #86
54%
Expected Total Games: 26.1
Predicted Winner: Rinky Hijikata

Why the Model Favors Rinky Hijikata

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.6 Rinky Hijikata
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Rinky Hijikata
Recent form +2.1 Terence Atmane
Surface fit +1.0 Rinky Hijikata

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Rinky Hijikata. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current #98 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #47 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #64 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #68 2025-10-20

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #86 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #101 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #114 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #106 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 29.1
ELO Rating: 1591.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 29.6
ELO Rating: 1616.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Rinky Hijikata
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rinky Hijikata is a narrow favorite in Almaty’s Round of 32, at 54% to Terence Atmane’s 46%. The forecast points to 26.1 total games, suggesting a competitive match.

Match Analysis

The main separator is the serve-and-return balance, which gives Hijikata the edge in this matchup. His higher ranking, 86th to Atmane’s 98th, and stronger overall record against opposition also support the slight lean. Atmane’s recent form is a counterweight, giving him a modest lift in the forecast. The hard-court fit favors Hijikata slightly, but neither player has a pronounced surface advantage, so the gap between them remains narrow.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.1 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Rinky Hijikata) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Rinky Hijikata wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Atmane is projected to hit 9.0 aces and 3.6 double faults, compared with 6.9 aces and 2.9 double faults for Hijikata. Atmane’s serve profile points to the higher ace count, though the hard court’s consistent bounce should also give both players chances to return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Terence Atmane 8.9 + Rinky Hijikata 6.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Terence Atmane 3.6 + Rinky Hijikata 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Terence Atmane

Expected 8.9 aces

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 6.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Terence Atmane

Expected 3.6 double faults

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 2.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Terence Atmane's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (29.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane’s serve is the most direct way to overturn the forecast: if he converts that projected ace advantage into pressure on Hijikata’s service games, the close prediction could swing his way.

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