Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #54
63%
VS

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #69
37%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

Why the Model Favors Thiago Agustin Tirante

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +3.9 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Surface fit +3.3 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Serve & return game +2.9 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent record by level +1.4 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Thiago Agustin Tirante. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #54 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #57 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #75 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #103 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #101 2025-10-20

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current #69 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #108 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #181 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #247 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #228 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 1732.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1781.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.3
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.5

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 26.9
ELO Rating: 1496.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1487.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 93.6
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Facundo Diaz Acosta
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tirante is favored in the Round of 32 in Almaty, with a 63% chance of beating Diaz Acosta, who is given 37%. The forecast is for 25.5 total games, pointing to a potentially extended match.

Match Analysis

Tirante has the stronger overall profile, reflected in his ranking of 54th compared with Diaz Acosta’s 69th, and he holds a small advantage in both serving and returning. The hard-court matchup also suits Tirante better, though his recent results have been mixed: he beat Hamad Medjedovic in Shanghai before losing to Rafael Jodar. Diaz Acosta has lost his latest two hard-court matches, against Nuno Borges in Shanghai and Quentin Halys at the US Open. Tirante’s edge comes from the combination of better hard-court fit and stronger overall level, rather than a pronounced difference in either player’s serve or return.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Facundo Diaz Acosta) +2.1 Most likely spread: +2 (Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tirante is projected to hit 9.0 aces and make 3.1 double faults, while Diaz Acosta is projected for 3.8 aces and 2.7 double faults. Tirante’s stronger serve profile supports the gap in expected aces, while the double-fault estimates are relatively close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.6 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Thiago Agustin Tirante 9.0 + Facundo Diaz Acosta 3.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Thiago Agustin Tirante 3.1 + Facundo Diaz Acosta 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 9.0 aces

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 3.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 3.1 double faults

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Thiago Agustin Tirante's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Diaz Acosta can change the forecast if he puts pressure on Tirante’s serve and makes the expected 3.1 double faults costly. If Tirante keeps those errors in check, his advantage on hard courts should matter.

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