Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #76
52%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #66
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

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Ranking Trends

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #76 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #106 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #115 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #132 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #128 2025-02-24

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #66 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #104 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #135 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #192 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #226 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 53.7
ELO Rating: 754.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.0
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 63.1
Return Rating: 36.3

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 732.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Ignacio Buse
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Rio 72 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-1) clay Rio 139 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) clay Rio 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Igor Marcondes (2-1) clay Rio 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Santiago, Chile is played on clay at a 250-level event. The model narrowly favors Thiago Agustin Tirante to win (52.45%) over Ignacio Buse (47.55%), with a predicted total of about 23.3 games in the match. The forecast points to a tight encounter likely decided in two competitive sets or a close three-setter.

Match Analysis

Tirante enters ranked 76 with a form index of 53.70 and an Elo of 754.70; his fatigue reading is 0.0 and his surface strength index on clay is 4.81. Buse is ranked 66 with a stronger form index of 63.18 but a slightly lower Elo of 732.86; his fatigue is also 0.0 and his clay surface strength index is 6.96. The mean serve index gap is large (Tirante 63.11 vs Buse 96.29), and the mean return index gap is likewise substantial (Tirante 36.30 vs Buse 90.08), so service and return dynamics are likely to be decisive. Over their last three matches on clay in Rio, Tirante posted two straight-set wins (against Cristian Garin and Francisco Cerundolo) before a longer three-set loss to Alejandro Tabilo; his recent matches included a very long 172-minute contest. Buse arrived with two wins (Joao Fonseca and Matteo Berrettini) followed by a shorter loss to Tabilo. Both players show recent clay activity and no tournament fatigue, but Buse’s higher form index and markedly better serve/return indices suggest he can impose different patterns on rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Ignacio Buse) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces total ~21.47. Clay typically reduces ace totals due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, which the model accounts for. The double faults prediction is an expected double faults total of about 5.92; fatigue can push that number up in long matches. Given Buse’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while both players may accumulate double faults in tight moments.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.5 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tirante’s slight edge in the model comes from a higher Elo and recent strong clay wins, combined with both players arriving fresh. The key factor to watch is how Buse’s superior serve and return indices translate on clay — if he can cash his serve advantage, the match could tilt away from the narrow prediction.

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