Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #44
46%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
54%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #44 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #145 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #162 2024-08-26

Tomas Machac

  • Current #22 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #22 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 63.6
ELO Rating: 1124.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1647.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 86.2

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 1204.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (1-2) hard Toronto 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs August Holmgren (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the US Open, two promising players, Joao Fonseca and Tomas Machac, will face off on the hard courts of New York. The predicted winner is Tomas Machac, with a probability of 54.28% to win, compared to Joao Fonseca's 45.72%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 37 games played.

Match Analysis

Joao Fonseca, currently ranked 44th, portrays a decent form index of 63.60 and an Elo rating of 1124.30. His cumulative fatigue stands at 174 minutes, which may impact his performance. He has a solid surface strength index of 8.09, while his mean serve index is 95.94, and his mean return index is 86.19. Notably, his return index is slightly weaker than Machac's, but the difference is not significant enough to cause major concern. Tomas Machac, ranked 22nd, has a lower form index of 50.21, but a higher Elo rating of 1204.57, indicating a more competitive edge in recent matches. His fatigue level is also at 174 minutes, but he possesses a stronger surface strength index of 14.19. Machac's mean serve index is 95.27, while his mean return index of 86.97 gives him an advantage in returning serves compared to Fonseca. In their last three matches, both players have had mixed results, with Machac winning his last match against Luca Nardi convincingly, while Fonseca also won his last encounter against Miomir Kecmanovic.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac holds a slight edge due to his higher Elo rating and stronger performance on hard courts, as evidenced by his superior return index. A key factor to watch will be how both players manage their fatigue levels, given they have the same cumulative fatigue from their previous matches. This could ultimately influence the outcome of this tightly contested match.

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